tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76065252981080657782024-03-13T14:08:41.637-07:00real time stock market quotesMr. Nonghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00338763258281464396noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7606525298108065778.post-27851656244459728342009-05-27T03:16:00.000-07:002009-05-27T03:24:11.900-07:00Kim Eng Stock Market Quotes Recommends Hold GRAMMYGMM Grammy Plc. (GRAMMY) - HOLD <br /><br />Price (Bt) 12.90<br />Target (Bt) 13.10<br />Set Index 556.47<br /><br />Earnings flat in 1Q09<br /><br />Higher revenues with lower margins<br /> GMM Grammy (GRAMMY) reported a flat yoy 1Q09 net profit of Bt106mn. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMHwJntMRZMNEYFEIL96AH36p4eQ6sjx6LtkyVsiNR37UL58btnrvQlRkIfcO8cE053plMeDt5L9lOgaOit8LzJXUQdpzYiy7SPq0GlOZwu8-UrLLIWv0U8oIOomAn7xiYdDa_m7OysxE/s1600-h/stock-market.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMHwJntMRZMNEYFEIL96AH36p4eQ6sjx6LtkyVsiNR37UL58btnrvQlRkIfcO8cE053plMeDt5L9lOgaOit8LzJXUQdpzYiy7SPq0GlOZwu8-UrLLIWv0U8oIOomAn7xiYdDa_m7OysxE/s320/stock-market.jpg" border="0" alt="real time stock market quotes"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340447203985722290" /></a><br />Growing music, TV and marketing event business boosted the GRAMMY top line. However, the gross margin contracted from 41.9% in 1Q08 to 38.4% due largely to weaker performance from the radio and publishing businesses inline with the industry. The launch of satellite TV services in 2H08 coupled with more advertising and marketing campaigns for digital and TV business added more costs. <br /><br />Revenue growth driven by music, TV and marketing events<br /> We see continuing growth in total revenues. Increasing music sales are attributed to the <br />successful of Luk Tung music sales together with 83% yoy growth of digital business (downloads). <br />Significant growth has resulted from the launch of unlimited music and ringback tone download packages <br />jointly offer with DTAC (since 3Q08) and AIS (Since 1Q09). Rising popularity of prime-time dramas and <br />sitcoms has helped boost TV revenues. The total airtime also rose from 2,655 minutes/week in 1Q08 to 2,860 <br />minutes/week including the seasonal programme, The Star 5. The event-marketing unit delivered 92% growth, <br />thanks to a low base in 1Q08 with fewer marketing activities in honour of HRH Princess Kalaya Niwattana. <br />The company also enjoys more customers from both the public and private sectors, such as, True Move, Nestle <br />and Thai Life Insurance. <br /><br />Improving performance expected in 2Q09<br /> GRAMMY is expected to show improving performance in 2Q09 due to the high season for the ad <br />industry that benefits TV operations. We will see more large-scale concerts, 12-Year Sek Loso and Beauty on <br />the Beat Concert. Digital business should perform even better based on more subscribers, reaching 1.1mn <br />under DTAC and 0.7mn under AIS, in April. <br /><br />Positive outlook<br /> GRAMMY earnings are projected to decline 4% yoy to Bt632mn (Bt1.19/share) in 2009 due to higher <br />costs. However, revenues will be driven by the digital business with more services and more mobile <br />operators. An ad rate increase on prime-time dramas and sitcoms, effective January, with a favourable <br />utilisation should secure growth of TV performance. The marketing event unit should enjoy resilient demand <br />from both public and private customers. We also expect to see additional income from more concerts <br />(including Bird Fancy Fanson Concert) and five movies releases. Note that one movie, Best In Time, was <br />introduced in 1Q09 producing Bt46mn in box office income and another four will be shown in 2H09. <br /><br />Downgrade rating to HOLD<br /> We still have a positive view on GRAMMY along with a dividend yield that remains attractive at 7-<br />8%. However, the share price offers a limited upside to our target price of Bt13.10. We accordingly have <br />downgraded our rating from BUY to HOLD.<br /><br />Earnings summary<br />YearEndDec31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F<br />Sales (Btmn) 6,068 6,930 7,476 7,765 8,299<br />EBITDA (Btmn) 1,115 1,470 1,597 1,594 1,720<br />Normalised earnings (Btmn) 209 502 655 632 690<br />Earnings (Btmn) 209 502 705 632 690<br />EPS (Bt) 0.43 1.02 1.44 1.19 1.3<br />PER (x) 30.3 12.6 9 10.8 9.9<br />EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 4.3 4 4.2 3.7<br />Free cash flow (Btmn) -139 520 486 749 740<br />CF/share (Bt) 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2<br />BVPS (Bt) 5.9 6.1 6.1 5.7 6.1<br />P/BV (x) 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1<br />DPS (Bt) 0.4 0.65 1.25 0.95 1.04<br />Dividend yield (%) 3.10% 5.00% 9.70% 7.40% 8.10%<br />Net debt/equity (x) 0.04 0.01 0.04 Cash Cash <br />ROA (%) 3.00% 7.50% 10.40% 9.40% 10.30%<br />ROE (%) 5.80% 13.80% 19.30% 16.80% 17.20%<br />Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.<br /><br /> By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 20, 2009<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVeX0dk8vMqq9Z-u-Hq_V-AUO8tJL4qGw9Hnj5irEbg8ZgjnVh0zun6FbomXmpqnhnIs1WN8NXKoQGZdeAeUgqxoi5te58Z_oa495AlvGbyZ2dukSZh3kmQbguIiQ7BDzLUdkwkh_mrQA/s1600-h/stock-trading.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVeX0dk8vMqq9Z-u-Hq_V-AUO8tJL4qGw9Hnj5irEbg8ZgjnVh0zun6FbomXmpqnhnIs1WN8NXKoQGZdeAeUgqxoi5te58Z_oa495AlvGbyZ2dukSZh3kmQbguIiQ7BDzLUdkwkh_mrQA/s320/stock-trading.jpg" border="0" alt="real time stock market quotes"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340446139704016354" /></a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Top USA Cities</span><br /><br />Washington District of Columbia,Oyster Bay New York,Greensboro North Carolina ,San Francisco California ,Arlington Texas ,Anchorage Alaska,Detroit Michigan,Anaheim California,Minneapolis Minnesota,Chesapeake Virginia,Tampa Florida,Portland Oregon ,Columbus Ohio,Henderson Nevada,Scottsdale Arizona,Seattle Washington,Raleigh North Carolina ,Chicago Illinois ,Fort Wayne Indiana ,Milwaukee Wisconsin,San Diego ,Boston Massachusetts,Albuquerque New Mexico ,Islip New York ,Honolulu Hawaii,Indianapolis Indiana,Los Angeles California,Rochester New York ,Oakland California,Jersey City New Jersey,Newark New Jersey ,Santa Ana California ,Bakersfield California,Las Vegas Nevada ,Chandler Arizona,Baton Rouge Louisiana ,Cincinnati Ohio,Chula Vista California ,Norfolk Virginia,San Jose California ,Toledo Ohio,Orlando Florida,Virginia Beach Virginia ,Dallas Texas ,Madison Wisconsin,Sacramento California,Aurora Colorado,Atlanta Georgia,Akron Ohio,Omaha Nebraska,Memphis Tennessee,Lexington-Fayette Kentucky,Modesto California,Babylon New York ,Fresno California,Hempstead New York ,Stockton California,St. Paul Minnesota ,Phoenix Arizona ,Long Beach California ,Fort Worth Texas ,Kansas City Missouri ,St. Petersburg Florida ,San Antonio Texas,Garland Texas,Wichita Kansas ,North Hempstead New York,Corpus Christi Texas ,Cleveland Ohio,Lincoln Nebraska,Glendale Arizona,Hialeah Florida,Baltimore Maryland,El Paso Texas ,Austin Texas,Tulsa Oklahoma,St. Louis Missouri ,Philadelphia Pennsylvania ,Plano Texas,Oklahoma City Oklahoma ,Mesa Arizona,Buffalo New York ,Houston Texas ,Birmingham Alabama,Riverside California,Nashville-Davidson Tennessee,Miami Florida,Laredo Texas,Reno Nevada,Colorado Springs Colorado ,New York New york,Charlotte North Carolina ,Durham North Carolina ,Tucson Arizona,Lubbock Texas,Denver Colorado,New Orleans Louisiana ,Jacksonville Florida,Pittsburgh Pennsylvania,Brookhaven New YorkMr. Nonghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00338763258281464396noreply@blogger.com0